Johanna Hoffman, a member of our Emerging Fellows program starts to publish a series of blog posts aimed at knowing how a changing climate will reshape the world order. This is her first post in our EF blog devoted to the importance of climate change. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members.
Climate change is arguably both the hardest issue to grasp today and the most important to understand. Depending on location, it can manifest in everything from more violent forest fires to more intense storm seasons, to greater periods of drought. With sea levels slated to rise at least 4 ft. 7 in. (1.4m) meters by the end of the 21st century, coastal urban centers will suffer more flooding, groundwater infiltration, and storm surge. The climatic changes spurring sea level rise - a two-fold process of melting polar ice caps and expansion of warmer ocean waters - will result in greater climatological uncertainty across the board. Our cities will become hotter in summer and colder in winter, storms will wreak more damage in wetter parts of the world, and wildfires will regularly savage drier climates. Previously arable land will become unsuitable for growing crops and formerly perma-frosted regions will transition to breadbaskets. Spikes in particulate matter will make air harder to breathe. The scale of these changes will alter modern life as we know it.
As these events become more severe and more common, governments will face mounting pressures. Those with underdeveloped institutional capacity or thin layers of social capital will have growing difficulty supporting their populations, increasingly the likelihood for political strife and conflict. Numbers of environmental refugees are slated to rise significantly in coming decades, which will place more pressures on other parts of the world.
That climate change is predicted to create such degrees of damage and discord is a result of the fact that the systems supporting our current ways of life have become increasingly interconnected. Economic vitality is dependent on intricate patterns of international trade. Political instability in the Middle East has serious ramifications for policy in countries from the United States to Russia. More and more, access to fresh water, power and digital communications is dependent on cooperation and coordination between diverse and disparate parts of the world.
As such, climate change impacts in one region affect the systems, management and daily life in those of another. If another hurricane takes out power in a global financial center like New York City, as Hurricane Sandy did in 2012, global economies will feel the effect. Researchers have found that the violent civil war in Syria was brought on in part from an extreme drought between 2006 and 2009 that was most likely due to climate change. That war and the associated rise of groups like ISIS has affected life both in neighboring countries as well as those farther afield.
Judging by current strife around Syria, climate change is beginning to reshape our world order. In coming decades, it will likely continue to do so in deepening degrees, from public health to global trade and beyond. Many believe it stands to upend human existence as we know it. When we look towards our future on this planet, we can no longer expect what has been to be a model for what is to come. Understanding more about its potential reach and impact is critical to understanding how we want to respond.
© Johanna Hoffman 2020