EMERGING FELLOWS: PROFUTURES BLOG CONTRIBUTORS
Emerging Fellowships are awarded to some of the most promising new futurists in order to give them a platform for cultivating their voice and to illustrate current futures issues.
They will be writing about the ideas shared in APF exchanges, at events, and from their work. Since 2018, the programme has been curated by the European Futures Observatory (EUFO to its friends) as part of their programme to help develop young futurists within the profession. The EUFO team is led by Stephen Aguilar-Millan. The essays of the Emering Fellows will be posted on the APF blog and collated into print form by EUFO at the end of each programme.
The Emerging Fellows Program is designed to recognize promising new futurists and mentor them through a one-year project that involves writing on strategic foresight issues. Each of the eleven new Fellows has developed a particular area of interest, listed below.
EMERGING FELLOWS PROGRAM 2020
The theme for 2020 is 'Our Geo-Political Futures' - the evolution of the world order to 2050. The basic premise of the project is that we are living at a time of geo-political transformation. The world order that has served us well since the Second World War is starting to feel a little dated. The institutions created after World War II no longer seem to serve adequately the problems we face. Not only are we facing a new type of problem, the geo-political balance is changing as well. We shall examine how this may play out by 2050.
Much change in the world can be laid down to two factors - the re-structuring of the world economy and a changing climate. The re-structuring has been enabled by advances in technology in recent decades, allowing for the extension of global supply chains and new markets to be created. This has led to a shift in the balance of economic advantage away from Europe and North America, towards East and South Asia. These shifts have yet to fully play out and the study will examine the pathways they could take in the next 30 years. The regional studies will examine four key locations where change could have a profound impact.
A changing climate is also starting to have an impact upon the world order. Areas that have previously been inhospitable to human activity, such as the Arctic, are now starting to open up. Equally, areas in which human activity has been possible to date, such as the Sahel, are starting to become hostile to human activity. As the climate changes and has an impact upon human activity, issues such as migration, poverty, and economic potential may come to the fore. The thematic studies will get to grips with these issues to provide an insight into how they may unfold by 2050.
Each member of the team will publish one piece per month for 2020. These will be published electronically on the APF blog. At the end of 2020, the collected work will be collated and edited into a single print volume. The eight topics of enquiry, will be:
1. Will the Belt and Road be complete by 2050?
(Carl Michael: Melbourne, Australia)
2. How will inequality impact upon the world order by 2050?
(Martin Duys: Cape Town, South Africa)
3. Will a changing climate reshape the world order by 2050?
(Johanna Hoffman: San Francisco, USA)
4. Will the movement of populations bear upon the world order by 2050?
(Kevin Jae: Toronto, Canada)
5. Will world power pivot towards the Heartland in 2050?
(Kimberly 'Kay' Daniels: Houston, USA)
6. Will the Great Game move to the Arctic by 2050?
(Tyler Mongan: Santa Monica USA)
7. Can the potential of Africa become unlocked by 2050?
(Sarah Skidmore: Orlando, USA)
8. Is the Asian Century inevitable?
(Travis Kupp: Atlanta, USA)
We hope that you find this exploration of the future both interesting and useful.
EMERGING FELLOWS PROGRAM 2019
We are pleased to announce the Emerging Fellows, and their program, for 2019. The theme this year is to be the ‘Transformation of Capital’ – more a case of evolution than revolution. The basic premise of the project is that instead of Capitalism ending (the Post-Capitalist argument), it could be radically transformed. If so, what could it be transformed into, and how much of that transformation is evident today? This subject lends itself nicely to a 3 Horizons approach. Our time horizon is the second half of this century.
In considering the transformation of capital, we shall examine eight large questions. The eight participants in the program, along with their topics, are:
The Economy Transformed
1. Charlotte Aguilar-Millan: To what extent is the company of the future represented in the company of today? (Edinburgh, Scotland)
2. Paul Tero: To what degree can the economy be digitized? (Melbourne, Australia)
3. Alex Floate: What is the role of finance in the emergent future? (Kernersville, North Carolina, USA)
4. Felistus Mbole: Will the present trend towards greater inequality be reversed? (Nairobi, Kenya)
5. Esmee Wilcox: Are social entrepreneurs the capitalists of the future? (Diss, England)
6. Robin Jourdan: Has democracy had it’s day? (Detroit, Michigan, USA)
7. Ruth Lewis: Will personal liberty be re-defined in the future? (Melbourne, Australia)
8. Tim Morgan: What ownership structures will emerge in an automated future? (Lewisville, Texas, USA)
EMERGING FELLOWS PROGRAM 2018
The Emerging Fellows for 2018 were:
- Nichola Cooper (Australia): Do diﬀerent paradigms require diﬀerent levels of trust?
- David Roselle (USA): Can we live in a world of city-states?
- Polina Silakova (Australia): Would a postcapitalist economy be one which catered for values more than possessions?
- Daniel Bonin (Germany): Will we have to rebuild our world to make it sustainable in 2050?
- Daniel Riveong (Indonesia): What are the plausible new models of prosperity in the Global South?
- Laura Dinneen (Australia): Will an aged society be able to thrive, or even survive?
- Monica Porteanu (USA): Do you wonder how to think about the future?
- Adam Cowart (Canada): To what extent will the real economy be real in the future?
- Maggie Greyson (Canada): How might we build technology so that people can use it?
- Ariana Lutterman (USA): Will the challenge of climate change alter the nature of capitalism?
- Craig Perry (UK): Is another great power war inevitable?
There is a good spread of Emerging Fellows from around the world, broadly reflecting the spread of membership. They are all addressing questions that are likely to have an impact on their careers as they develop, reflecting both their interests and issues that we expect to become more pressing as we head towards the middle of the century. Each of the Emerging Fellows has been publishing a short monthly piece on their theme on the APF blog since the start of the year. These will later be curated into a larger publication.
PAST EMERGING FELLOWS
2014-2015 CLASS OF APF EMERGING FELLOWS
In 2014-2015, the Emerging Fellows program was administered by a core team of Terry Collins (Chair), Wendy Schultz, Garry Golden, Peter Hayward, and Jeremy Mancuso.
Daniel Bonin is majoring in economics at the University of Cologne and is interested in strategic foresight and the psychology of decision making. Currently, Daniel is writing his master thesis about “Nudging” and is supporting the Institute of Trade Fair Management and Distribution Research at the University of Cologne as a student assistant.
Daniel joined Z_punkt the Foresight Company in 2013 as an intern, then became a student assistant until recently. In two student projects supervised by the University of Cologne and insurance companies, Daniel analysed the impacts of megatrends and digitalization on the health care sector. His curiosity for foresight was first triggered while working for the World Business Dialogue, developing a panel discussion on decision making in uncertain times.
Daniel holds a BS in Business Administration from the University of Cologne and is about to complete his MS in Economics with a focus on behavioral economics. He spent a semester abroad at the Corvinus University of Budapest, where he acquired theoretical knowledge in foresight.
Sandra Geitz successfully delivers new business initiatives and change projects in multinational organizations and SMEs. She has led strategy and foresight projects: analyzing trends, anticipating future impacts, communicating, influencing and leading change.
She is deeply curious about foresight, innovation, decision-making, user-experience, knowledge management and Asian business. Sandra has worked on strategy projects and traveled extensively in mainland China, and conducted business within South America, Thailand and West Africa.
Sandra initiates, collaborates, prototypes and adapts to address business issues. She has practical expertise synthesizing qualitative data. This balances her strong analytical and project management skills from her extensive engineering career. Sandra seeks to develop a foresight practice
Sandra completed her Master of Management in Strategic Foresight from Swinburne University, Australia in mid-2012. She was awarded Golden Key Honour Society membership in 2011 for academic achievement. The Association of Professional Futurists awarded honourable mentions in 2010 for her paper, “Ghana and its social development futures” and “Tearing apart the work-life balance map or the integral view?” in 2011.
Alireza Hejazi strives to discover new ways toward global leadership for shaping peaceful, equitable and sustainable futures. He founded "Futures Discovery" in 2008 to assist organizations and individuals in discovering what the future may hold for them.
His activities include leadership and futures studies, strategic foresight, future-oriented consultancy, futures research analysis, writing articles and book reviews, blogging at[ World Future Society], and cooperating as a teaching assistant in strategic foresight courses.
Currently (2013), he is a PhD Candidate in Organizational Leadership at [Regent University.] He holds an MA in [Strategic Foresight (MSF)] from Regent University, and also an MA in Managing Information, Science, and Technology Centers from [Malek-e Ashtar University of Technology] and a BA in English Translation from [Azad University] in Tehran.
In Alireza's view, futures research is meant to benefit humankind. He believes that futurists have a wealth of knowledge that can be extremely beneficial to the rest of the world in making better decisions. He has been a member of World Futures Studies Federation [(WFSF)] and also an active member of World Future Society [(WFS)], Association of Professional Futurists [(APF)] and elected as a member of APF's "Emerging Fellows" in 2013. He has a spirit of service and devotion for all mentioned associations.