By Devin Fidler
In an era of rapid technological advancement, the nature of information work is undergoing a profound transformation. To navigate this shifting landscape, we must understand how information work has evolved throughout its history.
Here, we explore ten key concepts that illuminate the past, present, and future of information work, offering insights into how we can harness the tremendous potential of automation to foster prosperity.
1. Information Work is Ancient
Information work is as old as civilization itself. In ancient Egypt and Sumer, scribes recorded transactions and maintained records, managing the complex information flows that enabled societal function. These early information workers, though unrecognized as such, laid the foundation for today's knowledge economy.
But as civilizations grew more sophisticated, so did information work. From the libraries of Alexandria to medieval scriptoriums, the manipulation and management of information has been crucial to human progress. Today's knowledge workers, while using vastly different tools, continue this ancient tradition of organizing, analyzing, and applying information to solve complex problems.
The history of business can be seen as a history of increasing codification. Legal partnerships and early futures contracts became standard practice nearly four thousand years ago when ancient Sumerians realized they needed a way to codify business arrangements. Three thousand years later, trade guilds emerged to codify vocations. Two hundred years ago, the modern limited-liability corporate structure began to take shape, along with the highly bureaucratic systems to manage them.
2. Organizations are a Technology
The Industrial Revolution brought unprecedented complexity to production processes, necessitating a new form of innovation: the modern organization. These organizations can be viewed as a technology in of themselves — one that emerged as a means to coordinate increasingly complex systems of production and distribution.
This shift professionalized roles in engineering, planning, and management, with information work becoming an ever-larger portion of organizational activity. The modern corporation, with its hierarchies and specialized roles, represents a sophisticated technology for coordinating human effort and processing information at scale.
By the mid-1900s, many business operations became so well codified that it led to the proliferation of franchises that could carry forward the corporate "code" even while operating as small-scale individual entities.
3. Coase Theorem Says Today’s Workplace Was Shaped by Information Work Tasks
Ronald Coase's theorem, introduced in his 1937 paper, "The Nature of the Firm," offers crucial insight into organizational structure and the nature of work. It addresses a fundamental question: Why do firms exist when free markets are supposed to be the most efficient way to allocate resources?
Coase argued that there are costs to using the market mechanism — costs of negotiating, contracting, and enforcing agreements. These are what we now call "transaction costs." Firms exist, Coase posited, because they can sometimes reduce these costs by internalizing certain functions.
However, as digital technologies reduce many transaction costs, we're witnessing new, more flexible organizational structures and work arrangements. The implications of the Coase Theorem are becoming more pronounced in the era of AI and advanced automation, potentially redefining our very conception of what constitutes an organization.
4. The Digital Revolution Began the Automation of Information Work
The advent of digital technologies marked a turning point in information work.
Computers began to automate tasks, amplifying our capacity for information processing and coordination. This shift gave rise to the technology stack we know today, from hardware manipulation of electrical signals to sophisticated AI systems.
Crucially, this era also saw the beginning of Moore's Law, an observation made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965. Moore predicted that the number of transistors on a microchip would double about every two years, while the cost halves. This principle has largely held true, driving exponential growth in computing power and setting the stage for rapid technological advancement in information work.
The impact on information work has been transformative. Tasks that once required rooms of clerks can now be accomplished with a few keystrokes. Complex calculations that would have taken days are now performed in seconds. The ability to store, retrieve, and analyze vast amounts of data has opened new frontiers in decision-making and strategy.
Software is becoming a key force for organizing human work as well as replacing it. For example, the Hong Kong subway system relies on software to manage and coordinate thousands of repair workers. In a more radical step, the venture capital firm Deep Knowledge Ventures has even named a software system to its corporate board.
As Moore's Law continues to drive technological progress, we can expect even more dramatic changes in how information work is conducted and automated in the coming years.
5. The Internet Put Much of the World’s Information Work in One ‘Place’
If the computer laid the groundwork for transforming information work, the internet was the catalyst that supercharged this transformation. Global, instantaneous communication and information sharing have reshaped every aspect of how we work with information.
The internet has enabled real-time collaboration across vast distances, democratized access to knowledge, and facilitated the coordination of complex tasks globally. It has blurred traditional boundaries between work and leisure, office and home, local and global, leading to an explosion of innovation and new business models built around novel ways of processing and leveraging information.
6. The Coordination Layer of the Stack Automates Management
The convergence of Moore's Law and the Coase Theorem is impacting information work in interesting ways. As computing power becomes exponentially cheaper and more ubiquitous, and digital technologies dramatically reduce transaction costs, we're witnessing the emergence of previously unthinkable organizational forms and work arrangements.
Building on this convergence, we're seeing the emergence of a "Coordination Layer" in the technology stack. This layer enables a new kind of economic activity: the worldwide digital coordination economy. In this paradigm, algorithms are being deployed to identify and match those in need of something with those who can fulfill their needs, including both human and non-human agents. We see this in action with ride-sharing apps, online marketplaces, and automated trading systems.
This Coordination Layer is becoming a central nervous system of the global economy, allowing for unprecedented levels of efficiency and optimization. However, it also raises critical questions about the nature of work, the role of human judgment, and the equitable distribution of economic benefits.
7. Human Cognition Has Limits that Limit Humans’ Capacity to do Information Work
As technological capabilities advance exponentially, we're increasingly confronting the biological limits of human cognition. There's a ceiling to the intensity and complexity of information work that people can perform, creating a growing mismatch between technological potential and human capacity.
Documented limits that impact our ability to do information work include working memory limitations, decision fatigue, trouble multitasking, information overload, cognitive biases, and many more.
This mismatch is driving the next wave of innovation in information work. AI systems are being developed to process and analyze information at scales far beyond human capabilities, not just faster, but in ways that can recognize patterns and draw insights beyond human cognitive abilities.
8. Access to Language Gives AI Access to Our Institutional "Operating Systems"
Language is the core operating system of our institutions and is now within reach of digital tools. Source: Wikimedia Commons, Dall-E
The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) capable of passing the Turing Test represents a quantum leap in machine intelligence. These models, generating human-like text and engaging in sophisticated dialogue, are pushing the boundaries of machine capabilities in information work.
This development opens new possibilities for automation in fields such as customer service, content creation, and even aspects of management. For instance, companies such as Narrative Science are building software to automatically convert raw data into stories that are sometimes hard to distinguish from those written by actual journalists. Legal analysis is increasingly being done by machines as well.
AI systems are also now able to make completely human-sounding phone calls and send completely human-looking emails to the people running our institutions. As AI gains access to language, it gains access to the core operating system of our institutions, potentially reshaping how we organize and manage information at a fundamental level.
9. Self-Driving Organizations Are Only a Matter of Time
As AI and automation technologies advance, we're approaching the era of fully self-driving organizations. These systems can emerge, create market value through AI and human resources, and replicate when successful, essentially functioning as evolutionary algorithms running on the substrate of the global economy.
While this may sound futuristic, early versions are already visible in sectors such as algorithmic trading. As these self-driving organizations become more prevalent, they're likely to reshape our understanding of what a company is and how it operates, raising important questions about governance, accountability, and the role of human oversight in an increasingly automated economy.
10. We Need to Begin Redefining Human Roles for a Heavily Automated World
As technology moves into ever more complex abstraction layers, the role of human information workers is evolving. While this shift may cause social disruption, it doesn't render human workers obsolete. Instead, we're likely to see a transformation in the types of roles humans fill:
Ceremonial roles: Humans may play important symbolic or representative functions in organizations.
"Human touch" roles and care provision: Jobs requiring empathy, emotional intelligence, and personal interaction will likely remain human domains.
Connoisseurship and feedback roles: Humans will play crucial roles in guiding and refining AI systems, providing judgment and taste that machines still struggle with.
Cultivation of subjective/spiritual experiences: As machines take over routine cognitive tasks, uniquely human experiences and insights may gain increased value.
Oversight and ethical guidance: Humans will be crucial in ensuring AI systems operate within ethical boundaries and align with human values.
This transition will require significant adaptation from workers, businesses, and society, but it also presents an opportunity to redefine work in ways that emphasize uniquely human qualities and contributions.
ADDRESSING DISRUPTION WITH DESIGN
The disruption of information work by AI echoes the upheaval caused by industrialization. Just as the industrial revolution required taming through labor regulations, international institutions, and social stabilization initiatives, our AI revolution demands thoughtful management.
The lessons of industrialization are instructive. It took decades of societal adjustment, including the development of new economic theories, labor laws, and social safety nets, to harness the full potential of industrial technology for broad human benefit. By learning from this history, we can potentially accelerate our adaptation to AI-driven changes in information work.
As we navigate this transition, our goal must be to create a future where the benefits of AI and automation are broadly shared across society. The future of information work is not predetermined — it's a canvas we must actively design. By engaging with these concepts, anticipating changes, and proactively shaping policies and practices, we can steer towards a more prosperous, equitable, and fulfilling world.
As professionals in this field, we bear a unique responsibility. We must not only adapt to these changes but help guide them, ensuring that as we harness the power of AI, we also preserve and elevate the irreplaceable value of human insight, creativity, and ethical judgment.
By embracing this challenge, we have the opportunity to create a system that enables human flourishing — one where technology empowers us to reach new heights of achievement and well-being. The journey will be complex, but the potential rewards for humanity are great.
Devin Fidler is the Founder of Rethinkery, a research and consulting center focused on developing and using group intelligence tools to explore the emerging issues and technologies that are changing the way we get things done. He has worked with senior leaders at dozens of large organizations to chart shifts and to leverage their potential.
Prior to founding Rethinkery, Devin worked with a number of other foresight organizations exploring the future of work, learning and organizations. He brings a global perspective to all his projects, having lived and worked in several countries throughout his career. Devin has built his career around the argument that organizations today are a technology undergoing disruption.
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