By Rich Erwin
Work/Technology 2050: Scenarios and Actions is a Millennium Project activity that took three years to complete. International in scope, this 199-page document is based on nine Real-Time Delphi studies — four for building scenarios and five for identifying actions — with the participation of more than 450 futurists, AI professionals, economists, artists, educators, scientists, engineers and other related experts from more than 50 countries.
The Millennium Project is a global participatory think tank established in 1996 under the American Council for the United Nations University that became independent in 2009 and has grown to 65 Nodes around the world.
The idea behind the project was to conceive of potential futures regarding the effect of fully mature technologies such as synthetic biology, nanotechnology, quantum computing, 3D- and 4D printing, the Internet of Things (IoT), cognitive science, human intelligence augmentation and conscious technology on employment.
The intention behind the report is to stimulate a global, systematic, research-based discussion on how to make the transition to a world economy changed by foreseeable future technologies.
The study looks out to 2050 and suggests 93 actions based on input received through 30 national workshops in 20 countries. Each of the 93 actions was assessed by international panels that also suggested an additional 118 actions.
To make all this information more digestible, the 93 actions are divided into sections for relevance to: business and labor; government and governance; culture, arts, and media; education and learning; and science and technology communities.
The results of this effort focus around three scenarios: It’s Complicated—A Mixed Bag, Political/Economic Turmoil—Future Despair, and If Humans Were Free—The Self-Actualization Economy.
The first scenario is much like today, but intensified; further concentration and growth of corporations, mixed effectiveness of government response, more tenuous employment, and in general much more disparate and distanced winners and losers.
The second scenario is more severe than the first, with greater extremes, explosive levels of unemployment and breakdowns in civic order and government capabilities as corporations flout any rules and regulations they dislike.
And the third scenario assumes much more extensive and effective pre-emptive actions by governments to minimize unemployment and both new and established businesses foster away from an employment culture to a self-actualization economy.
To learn more and to obtain a free executive summary, visit https://www.millennium-project.org.
Rich Erwin, a resident of the Puget Sound, graduated at the end of 2023 from the University of Houston master's degree program in Foresight. He takes great store not only in the effect of the weight of history on the potential for preferred futures, but also the willful curation of our pasts.
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