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CAN FUTURISTS BE FREE TO THINK AND PRACTICE IN AN AUTHORITARIAN REGIME?

Question: Is democracy essential for professional futurists and strategic foresight professionals in developing their work? Can futurists thrive in a world dominated by fascism?


By Chris Broad



The practice of strategic foresight and futures studies is deeply rooted in principles of openness, inclusivity, and the free exchange of ideas. These principles are fundamentally aligned with democratic values, which foster an environment where diverse perspectives can be explored and debated. 


In contrast, a world dominated by fascism, characterized by authoritarianism, suppression of dissent, and control over information, poses significant challenges to the practice of strategic foresight. 


I believe that while futurists may be able to operate to some extent under fascist regimes, their ability to thrive and produce meaningful work is severely compromised.


THE NATURE OF STRATEGIC FORESIGHT 

Strategic foresight is a systems-thinking approach that tends to support resilient organizational futures by focusing on potential changes in an organization's external environment. This involves exploring plausible futures, identifying emerging trends, and considering the implications of various scenarios. Typically, this process requires access to a wide range of information and the ability to engage in open dialogue with stakeholders from different backgrounds.


The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS) outlines ten principles for strategic foresight, emphasizing the importance of looking beyond traditional strategic planning horizons, exploring plausible futures rather than making predictions, and viewing the foresight process as a form of collective intelligence. 


These principles highlight the need for a transparent and inclusive environment where diverse perspectives can be freely expressed and debated.


THE ROLE OF DEMOCRACY IN FORESIGHT PRACTICE

Democracy, with its inherent values of freedom, transparency, and inclusivity, provides a fertile ground for the practice of strategic foresight. In democratic societies, the principles of transparency and accountability ensure that information is accessible and that decision-makers are responsive to the needs and concerns of the public. 


This openness is vital for horizon scanning, a foundational method in strategic foresight that involves seeking and researching signals of change in the present and their potential future impacts.


Generally speaking, democracy encourages participation and values the input of all citizens. This inclusivity aligns perfectly with the foresight process, which seeks to incorporate a wide range of perspectives in, or to challenge, existing mental models and explore viable alternatives. 


Public engagement in foresight exercises can help build a shared understanding of potential future outcomes and foster a sense of ownership over the decisions that shape those futures.


THE THREAT OF FASCISM TO FORESIGHT PRACTICE

Fascism, on the other hand, is characterized by authoritarianism, suppression of dissent, and control over information. 


These features are fundamentally at odds with the principles of strategic foresight. In a fascist regime, the flow of information is tightly controlled, and dissenting voices are often silenced. 


This creates a significant barrier to the practice of foresight, which relies on the free exchange of ideas and the ability to challenge dominant perspectives.


The suppression of dissent in fascist regimes stifles innovation and critical thinking, both of which are essential for effective foresight. 


Without the ability to question and critique the status quo, the foresight process becomes a mere exercise in reinforcing existing power structures rather than exploring genuine alternatives. 


Moreover, the lack of transparency and accountability in fascist regimes makes it difficult to access reliable data, further undermining the foresight process.


ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS IN FORESIGHT PRACTICE

Futurists and strategic foresight professionals have a responsibility to consider the ethical implications of their work. 


This includes advocating for futures that promote human dignity, freedom, and well-being. In a democratic context, this ethical dimension is supported by the values and institutions that protect individual rights and promote social justice. In contrast, a fascist regime, with its emphasis on control and conformity, is likely to prioritize the interests of the state over the rights and freedoms of individuals.


The ethical considerations of foresight work are not just abstract principles; they have practical implications for the types of futures that are envisioned and pursued. 


In a democratic context, foresight can help to identify and promote policies that enhance social equity, environmental sustainability, and economic resilience. In a fascist regime, however, the foresight process is more likely to be co-opted to serve the interests of the ruling elite, potentially leading to futures that are less inclusive and more oppressive.


CASE STUDIES AND PRACTICAL EXAMPLES

The successful institutionalization of strategic foresight in democratic countries provides valuable lessons for the practice of foresight. For example, countries such as Finland and Singapore have developed robust foresight systems that engage a wide range of stakeholders and incorporate diverse perspectives. These systems are supported by transparent processes and a commitment to public engagement, which are the hallmarks of democratic governance.


In contrast, the experience of foresight in more authoritarian contexts highlights the challenges of practicing foresight in environments where information is controlled and dissent is suppressed. For instance, the foresight work conducted in the Soviet Union during the Cold War was often constrained by political considerations and the need to align with state ideology. This limited the ability of foresight professionals to explore genuine alternatives and to challenge the assumptions underlying state policies.


PRAGMATIC ADAPTATION OF FUTURISTS UNDER FASCISM

While it is theoretically possible for futurists to operate in a fascist context, the quality and integrity of their work are likely to be compromised. Some futurists may choose to align themselves with the regime to continue their work, but this often involves significant compromises and constraints. 


For example, the Italian Futurist movement initially allied itself with Mussolini's fascists to pursue their revolutionary goals, but after Mussolini consolidated power, there was a split within the movement. One pragmatic wing adapted to the fascist rule, while another opposed the regime and engaged in anti-fascist activities.


This example illustrates that while some futurists may be able to operate within the limited confines allowed by a fascist regime, their work would be severely constrained and could not truly thrive in its fullest sense. 


The suppression of dissent, control over information, and enforcement of a single official ideology under fascism make it very difficult for futurists to freely explore alternative futures and challenge dominant perspectives, which is central to strategic foresight work.


TRANSPARENCY, INCLUSIVITY AND PARTICIPATION

Democracy is essential for professional futurists and strategic foresight professionals to develop their work effectively. The principles of transparency, inclusivity, and participation that underpin democratic governance create a fertile environment for the practice of foresight. In contrast, the suppression of dissent and control over information in fascist regimes pose significant challenges to the foresight process. 


While it is theoretically possible for futurists to operate in a fascist context, the quality and integrity of their work are likely to be compromised. Therefore, for the practice of strategic foresight to thrive and contribute to the creation of desirable futures, it must be rooted in the values and institutions of democracy.


 

Chris Broad is a visionary futurist and seasoned entrepreneur at the forefront of disruptive innovation. He is currently the Head of Disruptive Innovation Convergence Technologies and AI at Cairo American College (CAC). With decades of experience founding and leading tech startups across four continents, he has become a sought-after mentor and lecturer in the fields of artificial intelligence, convergence technologies, and experiential education.


As a passionate advocate for ethical AI development, Chris explores its profound impact on human cognition, decision-making, and organizational growth. His expertise in future scenarios strategizing has positioned him as a thought leader in Futures Studies, bridging ancient world-building techniques with today's immersive virtual experiences.


Chris's multifaceted approach combines cutting-edge technology with deep insights into history, architecture, and social contexts. This unique perspective allows him to craft powerful virtual worlds that challenge conventional thinking and drive character development.


A lifelong learner and innovator, Chris continues to push the boundaries of what's possible at the intersection of technology and human potential. His work aims to shape a future where ethical AI and immersive experiences catalyze personal and societal growth.


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