How Feedback Loops Shape Everyday Life

The Rainy Season Story

by Rachel Magaji

Image by gemini.ai

Every rainy season, the same thing happens. The sky turns grey, rain begins to pour, and streets start to flood. In Lagos, people joke that you should only look for an apartment during the rainy season. When it rains, like a thief in the night, water could rush into your room as you sleep.

That joke hides a deeper story.

Lagos produces an estimated 13,000 to 15,000 tons of waste daily, and only half is collected. We blame drainage, but flooding is more than inadequate infrastructure. It is the system replying to us. What we throw away blocks drains and returns to us.

The Loop We Don't See

Systems thinking helps us understand not just what is happening, but why it keeps happening.

In systems thinking, everything connects through feedback loops. A feedback loop shows how the result of an action feeds back into the system, creating a circular pattern that is hard to notice as it forms.

Daniel Kim highlights two key types. A reinforcing loop strengthens a pattern. Lagos flooding is an example. Trash blocks drains, floods spread more trash, and the next rainfall becomes worse. A balancing loop tries to stabilise the system. Drainage is meant to move water away, but when drains are blocked, the balancing loop weakens and the reinforcing loop takes over.

Many long-term problems persist because of unintended consequences and delays between action and outcome. Once you learn to see loops, you begin to notice where a small change can shift the whole system, not by forcing it, but by nudging the right points.

Why Loops Persist

Harmful loops continue even when people recognise them. Part of the answer lies in who bears the cost. Wealthier neighbourhoods get consistent waste collection, informal settlements do not. Manufacturers use cheap, non-recyclable packaging because cleanup is someone else's problem.

Only half of Lagos's waste is collected because resources and attention aren't evenly distributed. Flooding hits areas across the city, from Makoko to Victoria Island. But the impact is not the same. Those with resources can recover quickly, while those without remain trapped in cycles of damage and loss, a reflection of whose concerns are prioritised.

Shifting Mental Models

Itika Gupta, co-founder of Studiocarbon, speaks about mental models on the Next in Line Design Podcast. Mental models are the beliefs that shape how people act. Many Lagos residents drop waste on the streets, assuming someone else will clean it up. Businesses choose disposable packaging for convenience. These mental models reinforce the loop.

Mental models change when the invisible becomes visible and when defaults shift. In Kamikatsu, Japan, residents sort waste into dozens of categories at a central community location. Sorting becomes a public act, creating social accountability. A Lagos version might involve neighbourhood waste hubs where sorting is visible.

Closer to home, LAWMA cart pushers and informal recycling cooperatives already demonstrate this. They make waste sorting visible and economically valuable. When collection becomes a community activity rather than something hidden behind gates, behaviour shifts. Models also shift when defaults change. If buildings required sorting stations or packaging required deposit refunds, proper disposal becomes easier. When influential people demonstrate waste sorting, others adopt their behaviours.

Where to Intervene

Donella Meadows identified leverage points. These are places in a system where a slight shift produces significant change. Here are the most powerful three because they work at different levels: changing what enters the system, how the system is built, and what people can see.

Packaging design standards stop the problem at its source. When manufacturers must use materials compatible with existing infrastructure or offer money for returned bottles, waste is collected before it reaches drains.

Default infrastructure in new developments embeds good practice into physical structures. When building codes require waste sorting areas and proper drainage in every new building, doing the right thing becomes the easy thing.

Information flows make consequences visible. When people see how their waste connects to flooding in their neighbourhood, behaviour changes. Community WhatsApp groups in Lagos already share photos of blocked drains and flooded streets. Organising and making this information available to everyone could shift behaviour across the city.

Influence, Not Control

Systems behave like living things. When we try to control one part, another part shifts. Peter Senge reminds us that structure drives behaviour. This means how a system is built shapes how people act in it.

Control thinking says: ban plastic bags, and the problem stops. But systems adapt. People switch to alternatives that also clog drains. Build bigger drains, and developers build in flood-prone areas, creating worse floods when drains fail.

Figure: The Drain Paradox: How infrastructure solutions create worse problems

(Diagram structure adapted from Itika Gupta's design thinking synthesis framework)

Influence thinking asks: What if we made proper disposal easier? Consider how danfo(1) drivers organise themselves at motor parks. Nobody forces them into formation, but the system of loading patterns, conductor signals, and shared understanding creates order. Apply this to waste. Instead of banning street vendors who create waste, partner with them to design waste stations they want to use. Instead of ordering recycling, develop markets for recycled materials so collection becomes profitable.

Image by gemini.ai

Influence works with how systems behave. It uses feedback, incentives, and information flows. We cannot control systems, but we can adjust key interactions to guide them in better directions.

Closing Thought

The next time the streets begin to flood, pause and look closer. What if the flood is not just a problem but a message? A reminder that systems respond to what we put into them. Transformation begins not with control, but with seeing.

Note:

(1) Danfo drivers are operators of yellow buses used for public transport in Lagos, Nigeria. "Danfo" refers to these informal, shared buses known for their flexible routes and central role in city commuting.

© Rachel Magaji, 2025

---

Driven by a passion for design and innovation, Rachel Magaji is dedicated to helping businesses succeed through sustainable and user-centric solutions. With over four years of experience in the startup ecosystem, Rachel brings a unique blend of skills in empathy-driven design, human-computer interaction, and behavioural psychology. Currently, she is enhancing her expertise in business strategy and entrepreneurship through an MBA program at Quantic School of Business and Technology, to become a leader in the intersection of technology, foresight, and sustainability.