By Jessica MK Streit and Jay Vietas
Change is all around us, and it is happening more intensely and more rapidly than ever before. It is also having a profound impact on the design of work and the lives of working people. While changes associated with the future of work hold promise for opportunity and advancement, they may also bring challenges that put the safety, health, and well-being of workers at risk.
In 2019, the U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) launched its Future of Work Initiative (FOW) to identify new research solutions, practical approaches, and partnership opportunities to enhance our understanding and awareness of future change. The mission of FOW is to anticipate and appropriately influence the future in support of a safer, healthier, and more productive workforce.
FOW maintains a set of priorities to guide research and practice focused on the future of work. The current living list was created from an examination and synthesis of future of work-relevant literature (Tamers et al., 2020). The nine topics are organized into three clusters. Workplace topics highlight the factors related to where work is performed and how it is organized. Work topics refer to what is done and how it is accomplished, and Workforce topics raise considerations around who is available and prepared to perform the work.
Let’s take a closer look at the topics that are included within each cluster:
PRIORITY TOPICS FOR THE WORKPLACE
Organizational design: Organizational design includes the physical and functional structures of an organization (Greenwood & Miller, 2010). Continued developments in information communication technologies have greatly influenced organizational design, to the point where it is possible to perform many jobs from virtually any location at any time of day. Maintaining physically and psychologically safe and healthy working conditions for all workers in a world of ubiquitous work requires modern approaches developed through dedication and innovation from researchers and practitioners alike.
Technological job displacement: Based on past trends, it seems safe to assume technological advancements will create new jobs over time (Mokyr et al., 2015). However, increasing applications of technology may also eliminate or redesign some jobs, reduce job quality and stability, or even change the way entire industries operate. Regardless of whether they are founded in fact or opinion, it is important to anticipate and manage concerns about job loss or feelings of employment insecurity related to the implementation of technology across industries, occupations, and workers of all skill levels.
Work arrangements: The availability of single-employer jobs performed on a fixed schedule at a centralized facility has decreased significantly over time while different forms of nonstandard employment arrangements have increased. Examples include temporary work, part-time work, on-call work, gig- or platform-based work, multi-party employment (e.g., staffing agency models), and self-employment (ILO, 2024). Research suggests these new ways of working may be linked to increases in job stress and reductions in personal health (Bolino et al, 2021). As working arrangements continue to transform and evolve, both occupational safety and health (OSH) research and the application of OSH research findings in the form of real-world solutions must keep pace.
PRIORITY TOPICS FOR WORK
Artificial intelligence: Artificial intelligence (AI) is making its way into workplaces in the form of machine learning, sensor-based devices, robotics, and cognitive decision support systems. While AI can enhance the work experience and bring improvements to safety and health, it also raises safety concerns for human users. This is particularly true when AI-enabled systems are not fully transparent to, or understood by, the people who will interact with or be affected by them. As we move into the future, additional exploration of systems-based approaches to enhance the reliability and safety of AI at work may be needed (Neto et al., 2022).
Robotics: The application of robotics to work can vary widely. Robots can be classified by their purpose, the level of human control they require, how they communicate information to human users or coworkers, where they are physically located in relation to human workers, and other characteristics (Onnasch and Roesler, 2021). Technological advances enable robots to collaborate directly with humans, allowing for improvements to work processes while posing new physical and mental health risks to workers (Gihleb et al., 2022). There is still much to learn about the complexities of the relationship between robotics and the safety, health, and well-being of human workers.
Technologies: The growing use of innovative technologies is changing the organization and the structure of work around the world. Advanced computing and sensors, additive manufacturing (also known as 3D printing), nanotechnology, smart materials, and a highly connected Internet of Things (IoT) are just some examples of technologies that hold the power to transform what it means to work in the future. Historically, it has been difficult — if not impossible — to predict the health and safety effects of technological developments and their applications before they have been widely adopted (Capasso, 2023). There is a great need to embed an OSH mindset throughout the process of conceptualizing, designing, and implementing to support the creation and use of new technologies that are both effectual and ethical in nature.
PRIORITY TOPICS FOR THE WORKFORCE
Demographics: Demographic diversity is on the rise worldwide (Dramani et al., 2022). As we move forward into the future, it is important to ensure both the benefits and risks associated with work are equitably distributed among all worker groups. A large part of this effort includes the challenging task of identifying and addressing institutional biases that have created structural vulnerabilities and contributed to existing inequities and disparities.
Economic security: The primary components of economic security include adequate wages, benefits, and job security (Hacker, 2018). All three have been linked to worker well-being. In addition, income — including not only income level but also the equitable distribution of income — has been labeled the “most powerful social determinant of health” (Sawchuk, 2019). Understanding and tracking both income levels and individual perceptions of economic security over time is critical for creating realistic opportunities to advance workers’ health, safety, and well-being.
Skills: Changes associated with organizational design, work arrangements, and various technologies and technological applications have influenced what work-related skills are in demand (Dondi et al., 2021). Today, career ambitions are not the only factor driving worker decisions to upgrade their skills through upskilling or reskilling. The pace of technology advancement directly impacts the need for workers to gain new skills to remain employed. Anticipating future workforce needs and developing commensurate skills building systems and structures are critical for the future success of individuals, organizations, and society as a whole.
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT: SUPPORTING THE FUTURE OF SAFETY, HEALTH AND WELL-BEING AT WORK
Many of the priority topics we have noted as being relevant in the future of work are not completely new. However, the future of work is arriving and transforming reality faster than ever before. In support of maximizing the health, safety, and well-being of workers now and in the future, it is beneficial to increase our awareness of the nine priority issues we have noted for the workplace, work, and workforce.
To this end, NIOSH began engaging in the practice of strategic foresight in 2020. The NIOSH Strategic Foresight Initiative seeks to help the OSH community better understand, prepare for, and influence how the future may impact work and working people. NIOSH has applied the principles of foresight to explore how potential futures may impact the practice of OSH and to consider how we might better prepare the OSH workforce for future disruptions. Additional foresight investigations are underway to investigate cross-cutting issues with known impacts on worker safety, health, and well-being across a variety of industries and occupations. Findings from NIOSH’s strategic foresight efforts will continue to be disseminated in an effort to help others understand, prepare for, and feel empowered in the future of work.
For more information on the NIOSH Future of Work Initiative, please visit the NIOSH Future of Work Initiative homepage. For more information on the NIOSH Strategic Foresight Initiative, please visit the Strategic Foresight at NIOSH page.
REFERENCES
Bolino, M. C., Kelemen, T. K., & Matthews, S. H. (2021). Working 9‐to‐5? A review of research on nonstandard work schedules. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 42(2), 188-211. doi: 10.1002/job.2440
Capasso M. 2023. Responsible social robotics and the dilemma of control. International Journal of Social Robotics. 15, 1981-1991. doi: 10.1007/s12369-023-01049-2.
Dramani, L., Patierno, K., Akpo, K. E., Ndoye, E. M. Y., & Kama, M. C. N. (2022). Eight Demographic Trends We’re Watching as the World Population Passes 8 Billion. https://www.prb.org/articles/eight-demographic-trends-were-watching-as-the-world-population-passes-8-billion/. Accessed August 28, 2024.
Dondi, M., Klier, J., Panier, F., & Schubert, J. (2021). Defining the skills citizens will need in the future world of work. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-insights/defining-the-skills-citizens-will-need-in-the-future-world-of-work. Accessed August 28, 2024.
Gihleb, R., Giuntella, O., Stella, L., & Wang, T. (2022). Industrial robots, workers’ safety, and health. Labour economics, 78, 102205. doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102205
Greenwood, R. and Miller, D. (2010). Tackling design anew: Getting back to the heart of organizational theory. Academy of Management Perspectives, 24, 78–88. doi: 10.5465/amp.2010.24.4.3655970.a
Hacker J. (2018). Chapter 8: Economic Security. In For Good Measure: Advancing Research on Well-being Metrics Beyond GDP. Paris: OECD Publishing. doi: 10.1787/9789264307278-en. Accessed August 28, 2024.
International Labour Organization [ILO]. (2024). Non-standard forms of employment. Accessed August 26, 2024.
Mokyr, J., Vickers, C., & Ziebarth, N.L. (2015). The history of technological anxiety and the future of economic growth: Is this time different? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29: 31-50. doi: 10.1257/jep.29.3.31
Neto, A. V. S., Camargo, J. B., Almeida, J. R., & Cugnasca, P. S. (2022). Safety assurance of artificial intelligence-based systems: A systematic literature review on the state of the art and guidelines for future work. IEEE Access, 10, 130733-130770. doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2022.3229233
NIOSH (2021). The NIOSH future of work initiative research agenda. DHHS (NIOSH) Publication No. 2022-105. doi: 10.26616/NIOSHPUB2022105
Onnasch, L., & Roesler, E. (2021). A taxonomy to structure and analyze human–robot interaction. International Journal of Social Robotics, 13(4), 833-849. doi: 10.1007/s12369-020-00666-5
Sawchuk, P. (2019). The most powerful social determinant of health. Canadian Family Physician, 65(7), 517. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6738453/. Accessed August 28, 2024.
Tamers, SL, et al. (2020). Envisioning the future of work to safeguard the safety, health, and
well-being of the workforce: A perspective from the CDC’s National Institute for Occupational
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Disclaimer:The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health or Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Jessica MK Streit, PhD, MS, CHES® is Deputy Director of the Office of Research Integration at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). In this role, she serves as the National Occupational Research Agenda (NORA) Scientific Program Official and is responsible for the scientific administration of intramural research at NIOSH. Jessica also leads the NIOSH Strategic Foresight Initiative, a futures-focused service within the Office of the Director that seeks to explore how unfolding changes may impact near-, mid-, and long-term approaches to occupational safety and health (OSH). She has coauthored a variety of publications examining both work-related hazards and opportunities to advance worker safety, health, and well-being today and in the future. Her background is an interdisciplinary mix of psychology, statistics, and health education. She also holds professional certificates in community health and strategic foresight.
Jay Vietas, Ph.D., is Chief, Emerging Technologies in the Division of Sciences Integration at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). He leads a team of scientists in the study of emerging technologies on worker health and practical application of this knowledge. This includes research on the use of advanced materials, synthetic biology and biomanufacturing, and artificial intelligence. Additionally, he is responsible for leadership of NIOSH’s Nanotechnology Research Center and Future of Work Initiative. Jay is a Certified Industrial Hygienist, a Certified Safety Professional and a member of the American Industrial Hygiene Association.
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