Australia’s Strategic Blind Spot: Lessons in Long-Term Thinking from John Blackburn’s APF Talk

At a recent webinar hosted by the Association of Professional Futurists, retired Air Vice-Marshal John Blackburn AO delivered a sobering analysis of Australia’s long-term strategic preparedness. Drawing from decades of experience in defence and national security, Blackburn didn’t mince words: Australia is dangerously underprepared for the complex, cascading risks of the 21st century - from climate disruption and supply chain vulnerabilities to pandemics and social cohesion fractures.

A Culture of Complacency and Short-Termism

One of Blackburn’s core messages was that Australia’s governance culture is dominated by short-term thinking. Our institutions, he argued, are reactive rather than anticipatory. Critical long-term threats are too often downplayed, deferred or outright ignored in favour of immediate political or economic gains. This pattern, Blackburn suggested, is not just a policy failure - it’s a strategic vulnerability.

This lack of foresight has real consequences. When governments fail to imagine and prepare for challenging or disruptive futures, they reduce their ability to shape outcomes. Instead of being active agents in designing resilient futures, Australia remains largely a passive subject of global and domestic shocks.

Neglecting the ‘Preposterous’ Ends of the Futures Cone

The Futures Cone, popularised by futurist Joseph Voros, is a good way to illustrate this point. 

The cone distinguishes between possible, probable, plausible, and preferred futures - reminding us that the full range of what could happen should inform our planning, not just what is convenient or comfortable.

Unfortunately, futures that are considered ‘implausible’ or ‘preposterous’ are too often dismissed, even when they carry significant consequences. For Blackburn, this signals a deeper issue: a lack of institutional imagination.

This dynamic also aligns closely with the thinking of futures scholar Sohail Inayatullah, who argues that many institutions operate within a ‘used future’ - a set of inherited assumptions, narratives and mental models that are no longer fit for purpose. Rather than fostering a sense of agency and adaptability, Australia’s policymakers often recycle outdated strategies that leave the country exposed to rapidly changing realities.

The Absence of Strategic Infrastructure

Demonstrating the above points, Blackburn outlined a staggering list of critical national assessments that either no longer exist or exist in secret: 

• No National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment – One was initiated by the Department of Home Affairs in 2022 but was never delivered.

• No National Security Strategy – Australia hasn’t had one since the 2013 version under the Gillard Government. It was scrapped by the Abbott Government and never replaced.

• No updated National Energy Security Assessment – The last one was completed in 2011. A 2020 Liquid Fuel Security Review remains classified, even as fuel security continues to deteriorate.

• No released Climate Risk Assessment – Despite commitments by Prime Minister Albanese, the promised assessment has yet to surface. A version completed by the Office of National Intelligence remains classified, even though it informed the Defence Strategic Review.

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Each of these gaps represents a missed opportunity to institutionalise foresight and build adaptive capacity. The fact that these assessments remain missing or hidden from public view only reinforces Blackburn’s point: Australia is flying blind into an increasingly turbulent future.

Key Lessons for Australia’s Long-term Prosperity and Resilience 

To build stronger strategic foresight in Australia, several key lessons emerge from John Blackburn’s analysis:

• Reject the “used future”: Australia must challenge outdated assumptions and inherited mental models that limit imagination and prevent innovative policy thinking.

• Embrace the fringe of the Futures Cone: So-called “preposterous” or low-probability, high-impact scenarios must be acknowledged—not ignored—as vital inputs for stress-testing our systems and strategies.

• Foster collective intelligence: Foresight shouldn’t be confined to experts. We need broad-based participation that brings together policymakers, civil society, business, and communities in shared dialogue.

• Invest in deliberative futures thinking: Structured, inclusive deliberation can help generate more legitimate, diverse and creative policy responses to complex challenges.

• Reclaim agency over the future: Rather than being passive recipients of disruption, Australians must build the institutional capacity and cultural mindset to actively shape long-term outcomes.

By taking these steps, Australia can move from a reactive posture to one grounded in resilience, imagination and long-term responsibility.

The Path Forward

John Blackburn’s message is ultimately a call to action. Australia must move beyond its current culture of policy inertia. That means re-establishing strategic assessments, building transparent risk evaluations, and investing in the institutions and skillsets required to govern with the future in mind.

Foresight should not be confined to isolated experts or academic forums - it should be a muscle flexed across all levels of decision-making. In the absence of that, Australia risks being continually surprised by the very futures it refuses to imagine.

In summary: we don’t lack warnings. We lack the will to act on them. Blackburn’s call is clear: Australia must start treating foresight as infrastructure - critical, continuous, and collective