Seeing the Unseen: Backbones, Resilience, and the Future

by James Balzer

In the May Oceania Association of Professional Futurists (APF), we had the pleasure of hosting Patricia Lustig - former APF Board member. 

Specifically, Patricia Lustig shared insights from her latest book, The Possibility Wheel, which she co-authored with Gill Ringland. Central to the webinar was the discussion of resilience, a cornerstone of futures and foresight practice. Lustig explored how practitioners can help build resilience by developing the capacity for anticipation, and introduced the concept of ‘backbones’ —the essential structures that underpin societal functioning.

What are ‘Backbones?’

In Lustig’s framing, a backbone is a set of rules which are shared, agreed and support the way that things work.

As such, ‘Backbones’ are the key ingredient in ‘The Possibility Wheel.’ Importantly, backbones are both implicit and explicit: 

• Implicit - norms, values and worldviews that help promote societal cohesion 

• Explicit - legislation, regulations, policies and agreements that enable societal cohesion 

Backbones might include anything from international agreements, such as the Paris Agreement or the Montreal Protocol, down to local norms and values at a localised level, like the role of community infrastructure and family units. 

In the  book by Lustig and Ringland, and during the webinar, it was made  clear there are several domains where backbones are vital—national governance, healthcare, finance, education, and international standards—all of which are being reshaped by ongoing technological, environmental, and political shifts. The erosion of shared norms or agreements in these areas can have cascading effects, leading to breakdowns in coordination, trust, and functionality.

From backbones, durable resilience can be enabled. These are known as evolving backbones. Alternatively, fractured backbones can disable resilience, and collapse the norms, agreements and expectations that we’ve just assumed will persist and create cohesive resilience. 

The Importance of Backbones in Our Modern, Complex World 

Lustig made a point to emphasise that in an age of growing uncertainty and disruption, resilience is not simply about bouncing back, but about the ability to adapt, reorganise and evolve in the face of stress - reflecting notions of ‘antifragility.’

For futurists, this means developing and applying anticipatory thinking—actively engaging with emerging signals, trends, and uncertainties to shape more robust and responsive systems.

The session made clear that anticipation is not about prediction, but about readiness. It requires an ability to imagine multiple possible futures and to interrogate the assumptions that support present systems. In this way, foresight practitioners can help organisations and communities navigate change more skillfully by expanding their field of vision and enhancing their agility. 

Lustig’s insight is particularly salient in the context of contemporary crises, from climate change and pandemics to the breakdown of the international order and rising political polarisation. These crises not only expose the limits of existing systems, but actively stress and erode the backbones that hold societies together. 

For example, the COVID-19 pandemic revealed significant weaknesses in global and national health governance, while the war in Ukraine and escalating tensions in international relations are testing the durability of multilateral institutions and long-standing geopolitical norms.

The Application of the Futures Wheel

Understanding backbones, then, becomes a crucial step in both diagnosing systemic fragilities and identifying leverage points for renewal or redesign. In times of crisis, previously invisible assumptions—such as stable supply chains, political norms, or institutional trust—suddenly become highly visible as they begin to fail. Lustig encourages futurists to ask: What are the backbones we depend on? Which ones are weakening or obsolete? What new backbones might be required for emerging futures?

The Possibility Wheel itself is a structured tool Lustig has developed to facilitate this kind of strategic exploration. The wheel helps users explore different futures by framing questions around what is possible, probable, preferred, and plausible. This process supports richer conversations and better-informed decisions by encouraging a broader perspective and deeper systems awareness.

Ultimately, Lustig’s presentation underscored the need for systemic thinking in a time of systemic stress. As global threats become more complex and interrelated, the need to understand—and where necessary, reinvent—the backbones of society becomes a critical task. Foresight professionals are uniquely positioned to engage with this work by helping organisations and institutions surface hidden assumptions, anticipate disruptions, and co-create more resilient structures.

Conclusion 

Lustig’s webinar offered a timely and practical framework for navigating the uncertain terrain of the 21st century. Through the lenses of resilience, anticipation, and backbones, Patricia Lustig invites futurists not only to imagine what the future might hold, but also to examine and reimagine the foundations that make functioning futures possible. In doing so, she provides a valuable roadmap for engaging with the world’s most pressing challenges from a place of insight, foresight, and intention.