Foresight for All: Bringing Future Thinking to Informal Communities
- APF Community
- May 6
- 4 min read
Updated: May 7
By Grace Okubo
The call to democratize foresight must expand beyond the boardroom to engage those who are most exposed to uncertainty. Informal communities such as urban slums, rural towns, gig economy workers, and undocumented migrants rarely have the opportunity to engage in long-term thinking as they fight for survival each day. These communities need to be more proactive about their futures, as they are often excluded from structured foresight thinking.
As part of my ongoing work, I have been exploring practical and culturally sensitive approaches to foresight in informal settings as a means of empowerment and collaborative decision making, and I’d like to share with you my latest thinking.
Understanding Informal Communities
Informal communities include both individuals residing in informal settlements and those who work in informal economies. Informal settlements are areas where people lack legal land rights or live in housing that doesn't meet building regulations. These communities often emerge due to rapid urbanization and limited affordable housing. The informal sector includes economic activities that operate outside formal regulation, often without legal protections, stable income, or social benefits. (1)(2)
Despite facing legal, economic, and infrastructural challenges, informal communities are often resilient, innovative, and socially cohesive. However, survival pressures, such as rising housing costs, pollution, and limited access to technology and education, make long-term thinking difficult. Without stability, foresight becomes a luxury.(3)
It is important to empower informal communities with foresight at a local level to shift their mental model from survival mode to co-determining their own futures. They must access the resources to build resilience, economic power, and self-governance. Empowered communities do not simply react to change, instead, they anticipate and define it.
Engaging Informal Communities with Foresight
To support informal communities in exploring and acting on future possibilities, practitioners can:
Start with Everyday Futures
Foresight can seem abstract, especially to communities facing daily survival challenges, so it is helpful to use relatable topics such as climate change, housing, or job insecurity to introduce foresight. Storytelling, oral traditions, and folklore are familiar entry points to help people connect emotionally and intellectually.
Use Visual and Sensory Methods
Tailor futures methods to different literacy levels. Participatory mapping, drawing, speculative artifacts, and audio storytelling make futures thinking accessible. Immersive techniques, such as theater or role play, can engage imagination and encourage proactive thinking.
Co-Create Future Scenarios
Run participatory workshops using accessible foresight tools such as Three Horizons or Backcasting. Blend indigenous practices such as storytelling and communal decision-making with these methods to reflect cultural values and promote ownership.
Make It Actionable
Tie foresight activities to real-world concerns. Use insights to co-develop pilot projects or community solutions, such as low-cost housing or local skills training for future jobs. This grounds foresight in everyday relevance.
Build on Existing Networks and Leadership
Capitalize on trusted local institutions such as religious institutions, schools, and nonprofits to embed foresight practices. Train community-based foresight ambassadors who can sustain the process, cultivating a long-term culture of proactive, collective planning.
Empowering communities in this way transforms foresight from a distant concept into a practical tool for shaping their futures.(4)
Case Study: Informal City Dialogues Project
The Informal City Dialogues Project, funded by the Rockefeller Foundation and led by Forum for the Future, applied foresight to explore the future of informality in cities. In Accra, Bangkok, Chennai, Lima, Manila, and Nairobi, communities—slum dwellers, waste pickers, youth, and people with disabilities—co-created urban futures for 2040 through participatory workshops. Scenario planning and creative engagement methods were used, including youth video contests in Accra and focus groups in Manila's slums.
Each city tailored its scenarios culturally. Accra used symbols, Bangkok named them after meals, and Manila drew from songs. A second round of workshops translated these visions into social innovation proposals to support inclusive development.
The project demonstrated that foresight could empower marginalized groups by shifting the focus from present challenges to transformative futures. By bringing together diverse stakeholders, it sparked collaboration and fresh perspectives. However, sustained effort is vital to ensure these ideas influence real urban policies.(5)
Conclusion & Call to Action
Foresight is not a luxury but an imperative for all communities. To drive transformational change, practitioners must co-create the future with non-formal communities by using plain, open participatory methods based on local knowledge. This involves creating adaptive foresight toolkits, training community ambassadors, and integrating long-term thinking into everyday realities. Thus, we ensure that every community, irrespective of class, is empowered to invent and build its future.
References
https://csr.education/urban-planning-development/informal-sector-definitions-characteristics-role/
Clarkson, H. (2013). Reimagining the Future of Informality: Scenarios from the Global South. In the Rockefeller Foundation, Forum for the Future, Next City, African Center for Economic Transformation, Chulalongkorn University Department of Urban and Rural Planning, Transparent Chennai, FORO Nacional Internacional, Ateneo de Manila University School of Government, & Institute of Economic Affairs, Analysis Report.
© Grace Okubo, 2025
Grace Okubo, a visionary founder at Tinkouse Design, blends over a decade of expertise in design and software development, specializing in technology solutions for diverse sectors like Financial Management, E-commerce, and Real Estate. With a fervor for teaching, she has educated over 15,000 students on Coursera in design and product management, boasting an 85% student success rate. Passionate about crafting delightful and inspiring products, she enjoys creating resources to support professional and business growth.
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