Somalia at 2043: Scenarios and Solutions

By Mohamed Okash

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On June 26, 2025, Somalia marked 65 years of independence. But this milestone was more than a celebration of sovereignty; it was a critical moment toward a new national direction. 

In the same year, the government adopted three landmark frameworks: 

• the third-generation Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0) for climate action, 

• the National Transformational Plan 2025–2029 for inclusive development, and

• the inaugural National Vision 2060, a forward-looking agenda aimed at guiding Somalia toward its 100th anniversary as a sovereign state.

These policy shifts represent the  renewed aspirations for a new Somalia as it enters an era where short-term reaction must give way to long-term transformation. In a context of persistent fragility, climate shocks, and extreme poverty, the ability to anticipate and shape the future is no longer an additional planning exercise, but a necessity to meet  an evolving and most dynamic reality. 

This is where strategic foresight becomes necessity for strategic planning and excution.

Foresight is not about predicting tomorrow; it is about preparing for it. It involves systematic exploration of trends, risks, and opportunities across multiple futures. For Somalia, foresight allows policymakers, citizens, and institutions to move beyond emergency or crisis management and toward designing a more predermined, long-term plan for building a peaceful, shared prosperity and resilient communities in the face  Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA). 

According to the African Futures & Innovation (AFI) platform developed by the Institute for Security Studies and the Pardee Center, Somalia’s business-as-usual trajectory shows modest progress by 2043. The population is expected to grow from 15.4 million in 2019 to 27.6 million. Urbanization will increase to 56.7%. GDP per capita will rise to $1,502, double today’s figure, but still below Africa’s low-income average. And while poverty will fall from 66% to 37.5%, more than 10 million Somalis will still live in extreme poverty. These figures reflect cautious optimism. Yet under this “Current Path,” Somalia risks remaining in the margins of development.

To reimagine what’s possible, I used a combination of data and narrative frameworks. A foundational tool is the Futures Table, a structured matrix that identifies key drivers of change, such as technology, governance, demography, and climate resilience. For each driver, several plausible future states are explored. These combinations generate internally coherent scenarios ranging from best-case to worst-case. This methodology is especially relevant in fragile contexts such as Somalia, where uncertainty has been  normal for decades and development hinges on a complex interplay of forces.

Four archetypal futures are often used to orient scenario planning: Growth, Constraint, Collapse, and Transformation. 

The Growth scenario sees Somalia continuing its current trajectory, with moderate reforms, urban expansion, and technological adoption.

The Constraint scenario reflects a future limited by fragility, stagnation, or poor governance.

In a Collapse scenario, imagine a systemic breakdown due to climate shocks or conflict relapse, and

For a Transformation scenario, envision a leap forward, with strong state institutions to deliver social services with renewed social contract among people. 

Table 1: Somalia 2043 Futures Matrix

Driver	Collapse	Constrait	Growth	Transformation
Governance	Failed institutions	Weak reform	Moderate reform	Inclusive, accountable governance
Technology	No access	Partial access	Expanding digital infrastructure	Digital leap and innovation ecosystems
Demographics	Youth bulge unmanaged	Slow fertility decline	Better education and job creation	Demographic dividend realized
Climate Resilience	Severe shocks, no response	Reactive, underfunded efforts	Basic adaptation policies	Climate-smart systems and local action
Economic Integration	Isolation and fragmentation	Limited trade partnerships	Regional trade and AfCFTA gains	Deep continental and global integration

The AFI platform uses these archetypes to model how specific interventions can shift Somalia’s path. For instance, the Leapfrogging Technology scenario driven by investments in broadband and electricity delivers the highest gains in GDP per capita. In small cities, imagine solar-powered digital classrooms and small businesses selling online to regional markets. The Free Trade scenario shows that deeper integration into continental markets could lift 1.3 million people out of poverty by 2043. In a place such as Mogadishu, Barawe or Berbera, it means bustling ports and cross-border commerce driven by youth entrepreneurs sprit and action.

Other scenarios focus on core sectors. Agricultural Innovation improves crop yields by 67%, enhancing food security and rural resilience against climate and conflicts. Demographic Dividend highlights the importance of reducing fertility and investing in education, transforming Somalia’s large youth population from a liability into an engine of growth. The most ambitious scenario, Combined Agenda 2063, integrates reforms across governance, education, health, and infrastructure. In this future, poverty drops to 7.6% and GDP more than doubles demonstrating that transformative change is not only desirable, but achievable.

These projections are not speculative fiction. They are grounded in rigorous modeling and scenario testing. But the key message is this: Somalia’s future is not predetermined. Policy choices, institutional capacity, and public engagement will determine which path the country follows.

To move from vision to implementation, Somalia must now embed foresight in its governance architecture. But how? Here are four solutions:

1. By establishing foresight units or labs within planning ministries and local governments, the country can institutionalize long-term thinking. These labs can track signals of change, conduct scenario exercises, and build capacity among civil servants.

2. Youth must be brought into the foresight ecosystem. This is critical because more than 70% of Somalia’s population is under the age of 30, offering both a challenge and an opportunity. Futures literacy programs in schools, universities, and civic spaces can train young Somalis to identify emerging trends, design alternative futures, and lead community-based innovation. 

3. Foresight must be integrated into national and regional development planning. The next round of five-year plans, NTP implementation strategies, and resilience frameworks should all be tested against multiple scenarios – not just “what we expect” but “what could happen.” This will make policy more agile and better suited to an unpredictable world.

4. Foresight must be participatory. Community visioning sessions in pastoralist regions, urban slums, coastal towns can ensure that the imagined futures of Somalia reflect the diversity of its people. In one recent foresight workshop I facilated in March 2025 at the ICE Institute in Mogadishu, a student in his last year (of dugsi hare, or upper secondary school) said, “I want a future where I study  without fear of unemployment.” Such voices ground foresight in lived experience.

Table 2. Scenario Outcomes Table, Somalia at 2043

Scenario	GDP per Capita (USD)	Poverty Rate (%)	Population (Million)
Current Path	1,502	37.5	27.6
Leapfrogging Tech	2,200	27.0	27.6
Free Trade	2,100	25.5	27.6
Agricultural Innovation	1,800	31.5	27.6
Demographic Dividend	1,900	28.5	27.6
Agenda 2063 Combined	3,500	7.6	27.6

Finally, Somalia should connect to regional and global foresight initiatives. Whether through the World Economic Forum, the UN, or others, Somalia can exchange ideas, tools, and experiences with peers across the continent and beyond.

As we look to 2043, which is just 17 years from now, and 17 years from Vision 2060, it is clear that the road ahead will be shaped by VUCA.  But this can be useful. It is an invitation to prepare, to imagine, and to act with foresight. Strategic foresight gives Somalia a chance to move from being defined by its past to designing its future.

© Mohamed Okash, 2025

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Mohamed Okash is a researcher and ecosystem builder specializing in social innovation, policy development, and institutional and human capital development. He employs strategic foresight to anticipate emerging challenges and craft transformative solutions for climate resilience and socioeconomic transformation in least-developed countries. As the founding director of the Institute of Climate and Environment (ICE) and a member of the Global Future Council on Nature and Climate at the World Economic Forum, Mr. Okash leads initiatives that shape sustainable and equitable futures.